quotable

"Once abolish God and the government becomes the God." -G.K. Chesterton
Showing posts with label The Recession is (not) Over. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Recession is (not) Over. Show all posts

Saturday, September 25, 2010

The Obama Malaise and the Captive Economy

Earlier this week, a panel of economists came to the consensus that the recession ended over a year ago, in June of 2009. Why is this important? Because it means the lack of a recovery, the continued high unemployment, the decrease in wages, and the record low consumer confidence Americans have experienced for the past 14 months is not the result of the “great recession.” How could it be if it had already ended? No, it must be the result of an environment of economic uncertainty and hostility towards businesses created since then. In fact, if these economists are correct, the recession ended before even a dime of Obama’s $900 billion “game-changing” stimulus could be circulated through the economy.

If only we had stopped there. Business would be in a full recovery. Of course, the turtles wouldn’t have gotten their tunnels, the military bases wouldn’t have gotten their spas and saunas, and the Austin hippies wouldn’t have a new Frisbee golf course to sell and purchase their hydroponic. But we would have jobs (come to think of it, maybe some slackers wanted the stimulus to keep from getting jobs).

In every previous recession, once adjusting for market irregularities, America has bounced back. Well, except for the Great Depression. Unfortunately, instead of letting the markets dictate business activity, this administration has done everything to intervene, to basically arm wrestle the free hand of enterprise into submission. They have used the economic downturn as an excuse to push their Big Government, far left agenda, fundamentally transforming the relationship between the individual and the state, and not in the favor of the individual.

All of this is supposed to lead to some grand utopia down the road if we can just be patient enough, if we can just learn to be dependent on food stamps and unemployment benefits for the next four of five years. We are told the sacrifice of this transformation will be worth it, that the government will take care of us until that day of glory comes.

“Don’t give the keys back,” we are told by Obama... not to the businesses and wealth producers and individuals who want Americans to succeed or fail based on free market principles. No, instead we should let the government artificially prop up losers and steal from winners. We have to rule and regulate firmly if we are ever going achieve equality. 

This is the same promise of every socialist state, from Venezuela to Cuba to Moscow. I don’t have to tell you that day never comes – and why would God let it? A society of equality of outcome is a society absent of consequences for good or bad decisions, providing no incentive for moral behavior. It only encourages citizens to turn on each other in hope of currying the favor of the almighty state. It’s no coincidence that the workers’ paradise promised by the October Revolution led to the most hostile working conditions on the planet in the Soviet Union.

As I wrote last year, an economic recovery will come eventually so long as President Obama and the Democrats don’t kill it in the womb. Now that we have the data, it looks like it’s too late. Like all neo-progressives, they think they know better than the people. They are the smartest guys in the room. If no one has been able to bounce a square ball before, it’s only because they haven’t tried it with the right people in charge. And while it fails, they work even harder to create the illusion that progress and wealth are just around the corner.

In some corners of the world, they call this a captive mind. Here in America, we have seen it at work in cults and corrupt business practices like Enron. What we end up with either way is an economy bound by the chains of ruling class elites.

Monday, April 12, 2010

About That Recovery, Sales Tax Receipts Show Otherwise: Consumer Spending Down 14 Straight Months


As someone who closed a retail furniture store earlier this year, I can tell you from personal experience how low consumer confidence in Texas is right now. My store experienced a 40% drop in revenue from 2008 to 2009, including a dismal 70% drop during the month of August when cash-for-clunkers was introduced. This was in Austin, Texas, which Time magazine recently lauded as one of the best cities to do business and one of the least affected by the recession.

So what gives? Where are all these confident shoppers? Could it actually be that Obama's policies are killing the chance for a recovery? The evidence suggests that the president has made the recession worse, not better. He has created economic uncertainty tilting the flow of money from the private sector into government and keeping consumers at home. I'm just one of many small business casualties of his poor ecoomic policies.

When Obama talks about helping small businesses, trust me, it's just talk. Every tax credit he has introduced is worthless to businesses cutting back, and no small business owner is going to borrow money they don't have during times of economic uncertainty and sporadic revenue just to save a few thousand dollars in taxes they probably won't have to pay anyways - because they are losing money!

The mainstream media has hold us for nine or ten months now that the recession is over, that we are turning the corner and shoppers are beginning to spend again. Often these reports cite increases in same-store sales, but don't be fooled. This is a mirage. When big chains close stores, nearby stores see a sales boost. That's not due to an increase of shoppers, just a redistribution of them.

There has been no uptick in consumer confidence, and the strongest evidence of this is the continued decline in sales tax receipts. This year's March revenues from sales tax for the state of Texas were down 8% from last March. Let me emphasize that. March of 2009, during what was considered the height of the recession was better for businesses than March of 2010. In fact, sales tax receipts in Texas have been on the decline for some time now, and eight of the previous months saw double digit decreases.

As the Austin-American Statesman reports:


A closely watched indicator of Texas' fiscal health, the state's sales tax revenue is now $1.5 billion below where it was at the same time last year, the figures showed.
Even so, state officials say they have not yet decided to pull the trigger on proposed agency budget cuts, aimed at saving about $1 billion in the current two-year budget.
The $1.46 billion collected from February sales — and remitted to the state in March — was 7.8 percent less than the amount brought in during the same month a year ago.

Here's a chart of Texas sales tax receipts. Keep in mind March brings in a lot of tourists, including spring breakers and SXSW participants to Austin, so it should be up considerably. These numbers are disappointing to say the least:




Of course the liberal Statesman is selling it as a "softening." They might also want to note that Austin construction companies "softened" paychecks by firing 2300 people last month. Somebody tell Newsweek.

Hat tip to Mish.