Ramblings on the Eve of an Election (Plus a Prediction)

We live in a strange world made even stranger by politics. This presidential election is no different. Conservatives are solidly behind Mitt Romney despite Romney's ambivalence on many conservative issues and the fact that just four years ago Romney was considered more moderate than John McCain.

Meanwhile, Democrats continue to paint Mitt Romney to the right of Sarah Palin, but sneakier (if not smarter), despite his being governor of one of our most liberal states. This has only helped get Republican enthusiasm up. Nothing makes me more sure of my party's guy than to have the other party scream how little they agree with him.

But Clint Eastwood was right. Barack Obama has failed and we've got to let him go. He inherited the equivalent of a 6-10 NFL team a couple years removed from the playoffs and couldn't get them above .500, let alone back into contention, despite spending on "all the right free agents."

In the end, Barack Obama's biggest failure was not just an ability to get the economy going again, but his decision to ignore the economy altogether and focus on left wing pet projects, otherwise called "never let a crisis go to waste." He did so by increasing welfare spending and government oversight of more sectors of the economy, piling trillions of debt on top of a trillion dollar government transformation of health care that will eventually break this nation's back.

You want to borrow $6 trillion, fine, but at least show me something for your efforts. There is nothing but debt and deficits and meager economic news as far as the eye can see thanks to the failed policies of the past four years. Even if Barack Obama loses, the going will be tough, but it will be tougher if he wins.

President Obama has no record to run on other than pivoting at the 11th hour on gay marriage, ending "Don't Ask Don't Tell", and providing free contraception for women. Hooray. This is closer to a student body president's platform for re-election than the leader of the free world. "Hey, kids, vote for me and I'll put free condoms in the Recreation Center."

The president has failed to outline a vision for the next four years that gives Americans any hope. And this is his campaign's other problem. His slogan is Forward, which is less of an idea than it is a promise to keep pressing ahead in the spend-and-borrow direction he's been taking us, consequences be damned and nevermind the headwinds.

America's economic situation needs a u-turn and if you're an independent, there's no reason to believe a Romney Presidency would be worse than the past four years. Which is why the Romney Ryan ticket is winning independents despite the scare tactics being used by Democrats; over-the-top rhetoric from "the war on women" to "they're gonna put you back in chains."

It all shapes up or at least points toward a Republican victory on Election Night. For all the talk of Romney having to win Ohio, no one is counting on a victory there more than Barack Obama. Romney can still get to 270 with New Hampshire and Wisconsin or Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa. Of these, Nevada seems the least likely. Compare that with Obama, who has no other state where things are trending up. Every other state is either tightening or if Romney has a lead, its widening (see Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri for example).

The truth of the matter is Barack Obama has been losing independents, undecideds, newspaper endorsements, enthusiasm, and substantial leads in battleground polls for the past 2 months now. That's a lot to overcome with a so-called "ground game" unless they're stuffing ballot boxes. Obama's is a campaign of attrition, much like he has left our economy, and it's going to take everything to hang on against the surge that nobody expected a Romney Ryan ticket to have.

Finally, consider that in states where Democrats are voting early in solid numbers, party affiliation may not equal an Obama vote. There are certainly plenty of white, blue collar workers in coal states who may usually vote Democratic, but have had enough of Barack Obama, Solyndra, and green energy czars.

I'm no numbers geek, but the trend lines sure to seem to be flashing a warning sign at President Obama. Last time he ran on hope. This time he hopes he barely hangs on.