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"Once abolish God and the government becomes the God." -G.K. Chesterton

Monday, November 5, 2012

Ramblings on the Eve of an Election (Plus a Prediction)

We live in a strange world made even stranger by politics. This presidential election is no different. Conservatives are solidly behind Mitt Romney despite Romney's ambivalence on many conservative issues and the fact that just four years ago Romney was considered more moderate than John McCain.

Meanwhile, Democrats continue to paint Mitt Romney to the right of Sarah Palin, but sneakier (if not smarter), despite his being governor of one of our most liberal states. This has only helped get Republican enthusiasm up. Nothing makes me more sure of my party's guy than to have the other party scream how little they agree with him.

But Clint Eastwood was right. Barack Obama has failed and we've got to let him go. He inherited the equivalent of a 6-10 NFL team a couple years removed from the playoffs and couldn't get them above .500, let alone back into contention, despite spending on "all the right free agents."

In the end, Barack Obama's biggest failure was not just an ability to get the economy going again, but his decision to ignore the economy altogether and focus on left wing pet projects, otherwise called "never let a crisis go to waste." He did so by increasing welfare spending and government oversight of more sectors of the economy, piling trillions of debt on top of a trillion dollar government transformation of health care that will eventually break this nation's back.

You want to borrow $6 trillion, fine, but at least show me something for your efforts. There is nothing but debt and deficits and meager economic news as far as the eye can see thanks to the failed policies of the past four years. Even if Barack Obama loses, the going will be tough, but it will be tougher if he wins.

President Obama has no record to run on other than pivoting at the 11th hour on gay marriage, ending "Don't Ask Don't Tell", and providing free contraception for women. Hooray. This is closer to a student body president's platform for re-election than the leader of the free world. "Hey, kids, vote for me and I'll put free condoms in the Recreation Center."

The president has failed to outline a vision for the next four years that gives Americans any hope. And this is his campaign's other problem. His slogan is Forward, which is less of an idea than it is a promise to keep pressing ahead in the spend-and-borrow direction he's been taking us, consequences be damned and nevermind the headwinds.

America's economic situation needs a u-turn and if you're an independent, there's no reason to believe a Romney Presidency would be worse than the past four years. Which is why the Romney Ryan ticket is winning independents despite the scare tactics being used by Democrats; over-the-top rhetoric from "the war on women" to "they're gonna put you back in chains."

It all shapes up or at least points toward a Republican victory on Election Night. For all the talk of Romney having to win Ohio, no one is counting on a victory there more than Barack Obama. Romney can still get to 270 with New Hampshire and Wisconsin or Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa. Of these, Nevada seems the least likely. Compare that with Obama, who has no other state where things are trending up. Every other state is either tightening or if Romney has a lead, its widening (see Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri for example).

The truth of the matter is Barack Obama has been losing independents, undecideds, newspaper endorsements, enthusiasm, and substantial leads in battleground polls for the past 2 months now. That's a lot to overcome with a so-called "ground game" unless they're stuffing ballot boxes. Obama's is a campaign of attrition, much like he has left our economy, and it's going to take everything to hang on against the surge that nobody expected a Romney Ryan ticket to have.

Finally, consider that in states where Democrats are voting early in solid numbers, party affiliation may not equal an Obama vote. There are certainly plenty of white, blue collar workers in coal states who may usually vote Democratic, but have had enough of Barack Obama, Solyndra, and green energy czars.

I'm no numbers geek, but the trend lines sure to seem to be flashing a warning sign at President Obama. Last time he ran on hope. This time he hopes he barely hangs on.


11 comments:

  1. I guess this is what happens when all you watch is Fox News, and your secondary source(s) of information are talk radio, Drudge Report, X or Y conservative website, etc. etc.

    Romney's *only* path to victory was via Ohio - without it, as was apparent Tuesday night, the President was able to clinch a victory quite early. That had been the case for weeks, if not months. Had Obama actually lost Ohio? He could've won with Florida, or some combination of New Hampshire + Virginia, Colorado + Nevada + Iowa, so on and so on and so on.

    The point is, Romney was a serious underdog in electoral math terms, but Fox News and everyone else on the right kept pretending that he still had "Mittmentum" from the first debate.

    The only people shocked by the President's re-election? Conservatives blinding themselves to the truth of polling accuracy over the last year. All this "unskewed polls" and "I've got a feeling about Ohio" nonsense leads people to a brick wall they smack into once, you know, reality sinks in.

    Oh also, it's Friday, November 9, 2012, and Lloyd Doggett still smacked around Donna Campbell in the 2010 election. And is still representing Austinites in Congress.

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    1. Assumptions piled on top of assumptions about me and the media I watch and how I draw my conclusions. Of course I have every right to be wrong, but my methods weren't Fox Polls and Drudge Report anymore than I imagine your sources were MSDNC and Bill Maher. I pointed out that Barack Obama was running a campaign of attrition and that if he was able to hang on, it would be a narrow victory. Indeed, that was the case in the battleground states. Seven million voters abandoned Obama from 2008. His victory in Florida was Al Gore close. Ohio was a narrow 2 percent margin and Iowa much closer than 2008. North Carolina switched columns and Virginia was called very late. This was a 50-48% election. And yes, I went out on a limb and made a prediction that came close to, but didn't materialize based on my observation of trends. So sue me. I fail to see the relevance of Lloyd Doggett and Donna Campbell to this post, although I am excited to see Senator-Elect Campbell bringing us a more conservative Texas Senate. But wait. You weren't the one who predicted that Lloyd Doggett would lose and leave Austin without a Democratic representative, were you? Looking at the comment, it sure sounds like it was you: http://facetwitch.blogspot.com/2012/05/10-reasons-to-vote-for-donna-campbell.html

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  2. Yes, it was me. You see, I don't come into situations with bright and shiny, misplaced optimism and preconceived notions that drive me to the point of ignoring facts and circumstances.

    In Doggett's case, I made a blind prediction with no polling information based on the notion that Doggett faced not only a Hispanic challenger in a (more) Hispanic district (than he usually has), but also that his new district encompasses an area extending all the way down to parts of San Antonio.

    Your Romney prediction, on the other hand (just like the case with the bullshit spewing out of "Unskewed Polls" and Dick Morris), flew in the face of a plethora of available polling data about the presidential race. This is called "ignoring facts." Romney was a severe underdog going into Tuesday based on a mountain of information and polling information.

    Lloyd Doggett was a slight favorite, apparently, based on Charlie Cook's political index, but I can find 0 polling numbers on the 35th district for this election cycle. Point is, House races are much more difficult to make calls for than Senate, Gubernatorial or Presidential.

    "It all shapes up or at least points toward a Republican victory on Election Night." This is what I base my "assumption" on of where you get your information. Only someone buying into the bizarre fantasy cooked up over at Fox, or on talk radio, could believe that Romney was even money or better going into Tuesday.

    Do I watch MSNBC? Sure, about as often as I watch Fox. Or CNBC. Is MSNBC/Bill Maher my primary source of information? No.

    Nor did I ever claim that Obama smashed up Romney or overwhelmingly defeated him in the popular vote. Unfortunately for us all, the electoral college is what matters, and Romney done got himself whooped there. Obama's Bush-2004-popular vote-level-victory could've been attained WITHOUT winning Ohio or Florida. That's how much those 2 states mattered...

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